ACC showdown pits Heels against 'Canes

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels take to the road in search of their fourth straight ACC win away from Chapel Hill, as they invade the BankUnited Center to take on the dangerous Miami- Florida Hurricanes.

Roy Williams' squad dropped a crucial 85-84 decision to arch rival Duke last week, but bounced back with an impressive 70-52 win over nationally-ranked Virginia this past weekend to move to 8-2 in league play, good for a first- place tie with both Duke and Florida State in the standings.

Jim Larranaga's first season with the Hurricanes has been mildly successful. Miami is making a push for NCAA Tournament consideration, highlighted by a huge win over Duke in Durham. However, the momentum gained by a recent five- game win streak, was halted by last weekend's 64-59 road loss at rival Florida State.

The Tar Heels own a 17-2 advantage in the all-time series with the Hurricanes and have won the last nine meetings, including a 73-56 decision in Chapel Hill back on January 10th.

Virginia held North Carolina well under its season average, but it didn't matter, as the Tar Heels still won the game by 18 points this past weekend at the Smith Center. It was once again UNC's frontcourt that made the difference, headlined by Tyler Zeller. The 7-0 senior just missed a double-double with 25 points and nine rebounds. Forwards Harrison Barnes and John Henson however, were able to pull off the feat. Barnes finished the game with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Henson tallied 10 points and 10 boards for North Carolina, which outrebounded the Cavaliers, 52-32.

Fueled by the nation's premier frontcourt, North Carolina leads the country in scoring (83.5 ppg). Barnes has the ability to score both inside and out and is averaging a team-best 17.5 ppg (second in the ACC). Zeller isn't far behind at 16.0 ppg (fifth in the conference), while Henson pours in 14.0 ppg (ninth in the league). Henson and Zeller make up quite the rebounding tandem as well. Henson leads the ACC with 10.3 rpg, followed closely by Zeller's 9.6 rpg (third in the ACC). Point guard Kendall Marshall is charged with running the offense and although he isn't much of a scorer (6.8 ppg), he ranks first in the ACC and second nationally in assists (9.6 apg).

When compared to UNC's offensive proficiency, Miami lags pretty far behind. The Hurricanes are averaging a modest 71.5 ppg this year, doing so on .438 shooting. Still, there is scoring depth, as four of the team's five starters are averaging double figures. Kenny Kadji and Durand Scott share the team-lead with 12.6 ppg apiece. Malcolm Grant (12.1 ppg) provides support along the perimeter, while Reggie Johnson (11.4 ppg, team-high 6.9 rpg) does the same up front.

The Hurricanes struggled to find their range against the defensively-gifted Seminoles last time out, shooting a mere 41.4 percent from the floor, including an ugly 27.3 percent from three-point range (5-of-22). Kadji led the way at the offensive end with 14 points. Scott finished with 12 points, while Grant added nine. Johnson however, was neutralized in the game, finishing with a mere four points in the loss.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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