Lions visit Gaels in pivotal WCC clash

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Saint Mary's-CA Gaels put their perfect home record on the line for the final time this season, as they entertain the Lions of Loyola Marymount in a West Coast Conference clash tonight at McKeon Pavilion.

Loyola Marymount is enjoying a solid season, as the team is 16-10 overall and 9-4 in conference. The Lions, who are playing their fourth game in nine days, are coming off a 78-59 loss at Gonzaga, the setback putting an end to their recent four-game win streak. LMU is 8-3 in true road games this year, and the recent loss to the Bulldogs snapped a six-game road winning streak.

Saint Mary's is a stellar 23-3 on the year, 12-1 in WCC action, and the team's 16-0 home record is the best in school history. The only other undefeated home season was in 1958-59 (8-0). The Gaels, who are one of only eight teams nationally to have won at least 25 games in each of the previous four seasons, took out Santa Clara in their most recent outing, 82-67, rebounding from its first loss since before Christmas as it fell to league rival Gonzaga, 73-59, last Thursday.

SMC owns a 77-53 lead in the all-time series with LMU, and the Gaels have won the last 11 meetings, including a 71-64 decision in Los Angeles back on January 26.

Drew Viney scored 24 points and Anthony Ireland tallied 23, but those efforts went for naught as Loyola Marymount suffered a 19-point loss at Gonzaga last Saturday. No other Lion scored more than three points, as the team shot just 39.3 percent from the floor in scoring its fewest points since putting up a mere 58, also against Gonzaga, on January 14. LMU went just 6-of-23 from three-point range and grabbed only 24 rebounds, compared to 37 caroms for the Bulldogs, who finished the game at 51.9 percent field goal efficiency while laying claim to a 17-9 edge in points from the foul line. Viney and Ireland rank one-two on the team's scoring list for the year, netting 16.3 and 15.4 ppg, respectively. Jared DuBois and Ashley Hamilton round out the unit's double-digit scorers with 10.4 ppg apiece, with Ireland serving as the team's primary playmaker (4.7 apg) and Viney its leading rebounder (5.4 rpg). Collectively, the Lions are hitting their field goal attempts at a 42.9 percent clip, netting 70.8 ppg along the way, while permitting 67.8 ppg by holding the opposition to a mere 29.2 percent accuracy out on the perimeter.

Rob Jones logged a double-double consisting of 25 points and 12 rebounds to help push Saint Mary's past Santa Clara last Saturday. In addition to Jones' impressive effort, Matthew Dellavedova was credited with his own double-double as he tallied 16 points and 10 assists, while Stephen Holt chipped in 11 points for the Gaels, who drained 52.6 percent of their field goal attempts, hit 6-of-14 three-point tries and committed a mere eight turnovers. Dellavedova (15.7 ppg, 6.4 apg), Jones (15.0 ppg, 10.6 rpg) and Holt (10.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) are SMC's trio of double-digit scorers on the season, and the team as a whole is generating 76.5 ppg on 47.9 percent shooting, which includes a 36.2 percent showing from beyond the arc. Defensively, the Gaels allow just 61.6 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 42.2 percent overall and 36.3 percent from three-point land. They dominate the glass to the tune of a +7.3 rebounding margin, and they are +1.0 in turnover differential as well.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.